China's birth rate has been falling since 2016 - for example, 12 million new births
were recorded in 2020, but the number is expected to drop below 10 million in 2021
despite a series of pronatalist policies taken by the government. And although the
two-child policy introduced in 2016 caused an uptick in the number of newborns,
it failed to reverse the falling birth rate trend.
Can the three-child policy introduced last year succeed where earlier favorable family
planning policies failed?
The picture doesn't look good, though. China's birth rate in 2020 declined to 1.3
percent, far lower than the replacement rate of 2.1, according to the seventh national
census results. Since the population of women of childbearing age in China has reached
its peak, it will continue to decline.
From the perspective of economics, having children is essentially an economic
decision. The costs and benefits of having a child play a key role in such families
decision.
As for benefits, children carry on the family name and can help strengthen the bond
between a man and a woman. And having children gives an assurance to parents that they
will have someone to take care of them when they get old.
When it comes to costs, women have to endure physical and mental stress to give birth
and bring up children. Childbirth is painful and, in extreme cases, could be fatal. Also,
new mothers, in general, find it difficult to adjust family and work life. Plus, having
children also means additional expenses, and in some cases, cutting costs to provide good
education for the children, as well as dedicating huge amounts of time to bring them up.
In East Asia, the low fertility rate is largely attributed to women's lower position in
the family. Many women tired of rushing back and forth between work and housework with
men rarely extending a helping hand have decided not to marry, and if marry, not to have
children. Thus men have to shoulder their part of the social and familial
responsibilities to promote gender equality. This will not only promote domestic harmony
but also can help increase the fertility rate.